Sunday 3 July 2016

Why Trump won’t get dumped in Cleveland



Anti-Trump zealots fantasizing about dumping Donald Trump at the national convention in Cleveland couldn’t have asked for riper conditions: Trump is historically unpopular. He’s ripping apart traditional Republican alliances. He’s running an error-prone, poorly funded campaign. GOP leaders can’t stomach his candidacy.
There’s one insurmountable problem: Most of the people who could actually stop Trump from taking control of the party — the 2,472 convention delegates — won’t even consider it.
Despite vehement and high-minded exhortations from high-profile party figures — from Mitt Romney to Lindsey Graham — and conservative pundits such as Erick Erickson and Bill Kristol, delegates have largely been unmoved, or have even dug in behind their presumptive nominee.
That’s because convention delegates are not typical Republicans, GOP insiders say. Some are everyday, local Republican officials more interested in the convention experience than a political coup. Many are Trump backers brought into the political fold by the mogul. Others have been swept into national politics precisely to snub the GOP establishment. And others still are susceptible to that same establishment’s pressure to avoid a messy convention.
“I don't believe most delegates have the stomach to turn the national convention into a political war zone by attempting to deny Trump the nomination,” said Dick Wadhams, a Republican strategist and former chairman of the Colorado GOP. “Remember, the vast majority of these folks are not political professionals; they have personal and professional lives way beyond politics. And while they clearly have a deep political interest and record of activism, they don't want to be directly involved in this anti-Trump drama.”
These dynamics have left anti-Trump activists frustrated and stalled. Only a handful of convention delegates have publicly declared their intent to take on Trump in Cleveland. Dozens of others have told POLITICO they’ll forcefully reject efforts to thwart Trump’s nomination. Their main reason: He won more votes than any of his rivals — more than 13 million — and played by the rules in doing it.
“I’ll be damned if I’m going to go to Cleveland and vote to shred their votes,” said Jordan Ross, a delegate from Nevada and a member of the powerful Rules Committee, where a small band of anti-Trump delegates is struggling to mount a last stand.
“We should never circumvent what the voters want,” added John Cabello, a delegate from Illinois and another member of the committee.
Those looking to dump Trump note that he actually earned less than half of all primary votes cast, but he won more contests and benefited from rules that deliver a disproportionate number of delegates to primary winners. What’s really killing the anti-Trump efforts, they argue, is a lack of a serious alternative.
Though Romney has opposed Trump’s candidacy, he’s stopped short of offering himself as an alternative. Likewise, Trump’s runner-up, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, has kept his head down since dropping out of the race in May. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has also declined to lead the effort, despite subtly nudging delegates to “vote their conscience” at the convention, code for an effort aimed at breaking from Trump.
“The fact that no major opposition has appeared is what I think is killing and ultimately buries the effort,” said one anti-Trump delegate who supported Cruz during the primary.

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